Monitor do furacão Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 290857
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...POLO LASHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN SONORA EARLY THIS
MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 111.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The hurricane warning along the west coast of Baja California Sur 
south of Puerto Cortes has been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Puerto 
Cortes
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should
monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 111.9 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue along with a significant acceleration this
morning. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will continue
moving across Baja California Sur for another few hours tonight,
then move inland over southern Sonora late this morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional weakening is forecast
during the next couple of hours while the center is over Baja
California Sur, but Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it
makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well inland over mainland
Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next several hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area for another few hours. In
mainland Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning
area and possible in the watch area this morning.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches is expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen